When Nasrallah feels weak

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 When Nasrallah feels weak

The newspaper Yediot Ahronot published Avi Issaharoff's long piece on the security situation.

Although the ban on some details of the attack at the Megiddo intersection has been lifted, most of the information is still classified.

We don't know the extent of Hezbollah's involvement. in this incident, despite the immediate suspicion that a Shia organization was indeed involved in the operation. When a Lebanese (whether Palestinian or otherwise) crosses the border with a relatively high-level weapon and explosive device, it leaves too many fingerprints indicating that Hezbollah knew about the operation.

We also do not know why the terrorist planted a bomb at the Megiddo intersection, detonated it there, and why he decided to try to return to Lebanon when he still had a suicide vest and other weapons. It may very well be that the fact that the terrorist was detected in time by the security forces and neutralized not only prevented a much greater number of Israeli civilian casualties, but also prevented the escalation/war on the Lebanese front, which has subsided since August 2006.

This is where the more important question arises: Why would anyone in Lebanon choose to escalate tensions with Israel at this particular moment in time? There is only a week left before the start of Ramadan. Given the number of incidents that have taken place in Syria over the past few weeks, a major terrorist attack in Israel could be exactly what would allow Hezbollah to take over. to take revenge on Israel, which she has long wanted in response to the liquidations in Syria and the murders of her top officials (beginning with the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in 2008).

But revenge cannot be the only reason for the current timing. Recent statements by the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah seems to indicate that he believes the ground under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's feet is trembling. Perhaps Nasrallah really came to the conclusion that at the moment, when the “popular protests against the coup” gaining momentum and twisting Netanyahu's arms, the Israeli prime minister is weaker than ever and will not dare to gamble even in the face of a terrorist attack that will kill a large number of Israeli citizens.

Nasrallah smells blood. He senses Netanyahu's political weakness and has apparently come to the conclusion that Bibi, who has always been very cautious and conservative in military matters, will be even more cautious at this stage. Nasrallah knows that a large-scale military confrontation with Lebanon will lead the Israeli public to accuse Netanyahu of trying to drag the country into a war in order to absolve himself of responsibility for the “coup”.

Despite many questions remain unanswered, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the escalation of hostilities here has already occurred, perhaps not only on one front, and the focus of the Israeli government on changing the legal regime does not contribute to solving this problem. On the contrary, it can further aggravate the danger.

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