Negotiations on a nuclear deal between the West and Iran are nearing completion. The agreement, with a high probability, will be signed, and Israel no longer builds any illusions about this. The appearance of Israeli diplomats in Vienna is hardly intended to slow down this process. Rather, this step is aimed at reminding you of yourself and your interests.
True, now the world community is not up to Israel and not up to Iran. The main attention of Europe and the United States is focused on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and even on the Far East region, where a crisis over Taiwan is brewing. As for the deal with Iran, the international negotiators are trying to get it done to close this gestalt and get on with the really important stuff. President Biden is especially in a hurry to put at least one “tick” in their foreign policy plans, which are still bursting at the seams.
What can Israel do in a diplomatic direction? To reach another agreement with Washington that guarantees us security, as proposed by Transportation Secretary Merav Michaeli? More than naive. The only opportunity to influence ongoing negotiations – remind the world community of its possible reaction. Like, keep in mind: if the ayatollah regime starts building an atomic bomb at an accelerated pace, we will strike a preemptive strike against Iran. Does the world need another armed conflict? No, so you'll have to listen to us.
It is possible that a diplomatic landing force was sent to Vienna on this secret mission. However, one cannot count on its success either – bluff is too obvious. Israel has long been threatening to strike Iran preemptively, but all the time it is limited to targeted sabotage, so no one believes in this prospect anymore. Even the Iran-obsessed Bibi hesitated to issue such an order, much less Bennett. It's not that he's weaker than Netanyahu, it's just that, like Biden, he has more pressing issues.
Meanwhile, our prime minister said that Iran could launch centrifuges for uranium enrichment in two and a half years. If sanctions are lifted and IAEA control is lifted, this will happen even earlier. It is understood that this is how much time remains for us before a decision is made. At the same time, no one can clearly explain why it is necessary to eliminate nuclear facilities at the last moment, before a critical mass of deadly fuel accumulates, and not right now. After all, every day Tehran advances even more in the improvement of conventional weapons, and the future war becomes more difficult and more dangerous.
The fact is that the effectiveness of such a strike is increasingly doubtful. Experts believe that, in addition to all the horrors and losses that a military clash will bring, it is unrealistic to achieve the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The Islamic Republic will quickly restore its uranium resources. In addition, under the influence of tensions that have arisen, other countries in the region, primarily Saudi Arabia, may rush into the nuclear club. But worst of all, if Israel does not reach its goal at all and fails to stop the creation of the bomb. In addition to the fact that the threat will remain in full, such a failure will cause disappointment to our strategic partners, primarily among the neighbors, and they will prefer to build relations with Tehran, and not with Jerusalem.
One may recall the 1981 operation to destroy the Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor. – Israel did not warn anyone about it in advance. This is another argument in favor of the government – both past and present – actually avoids the forceful solution he constantly talks about. And this can be understood – too much has changed: the world community and its politics, and our country, our people, our attitude to war and peace. No matter how menacing the statements of our leaders sound, it is difficult to imagine today's Israel in the role of the initiator of a large-scale regional war. If anyone in the world still admits such a possibility, it is only thanks to our previous reputation, which no longer corresponds to reality. highly undesirable option. What is left for Israel? The same thing he has done so far, – play for time, hoping that it will work for us. If possible, slow down the lifting of sanctions, collect data on Iran's nuclear developments, win over the IAEA and Western countries – in a word, to try to delay the onset of the X-hour at least a little. And a lot of things can happen in a conditional two and a half years: the Islamist regime in Tehran falls, or Iran strikes first, or a brave government comes to power in Israel that is not afraid to take responsibility. Most likely, none of this will happen, and our cart will remain there even now, but nothing is better than postponing unsolvable problems “for later” they haven't invented it yet in Israel.
Author//: Ira Kogan