What is important for the world mid-term elections in the United States

On Tuesday, November 6, the United States will hold midterm elections to Congress. The outcome of this election will determine the balance of power in both chambers of the American Parliament, and thus a further vector of internal and foreign policy of the administration of Donald trump.

Чем важны для мира промежуточные выборы в США

Foreign policy usually does not play a significant role even during the presidential elections in the United States, not to mention the midterm elections in Congress. But now the situation is not quite normal. During the presidential campaign of 2016, a victory in which won the trump foreign policy was extremely important factor. And she might again become, albeit indirectly, in a midterm election.

“Midterm elections is an indicator of presidential popularity, — the analyst explains the problems of foreign policy in George Mason University in Washington and the Cato Institute Trevor Thrall. — Achievements trump on foreign policy were generally quite unpopular with Americans — this is evidenced by the results of the most recent surveys, and this had a negative impact on his support.”

The democratic majority in the Senate — a disaster for trump

Despite the fact that foreign policy as such is unlikely to be the main topic of the upcoming elections, their outcome may affect the decision by the administration to trump foreign policy issues. For starters, do not forget that after the election the Congress will be the traditional change of heads of committees on foreign policy. Retirement leave Republican ed Royce, who heads the house Committee on foreign Affairs, and occupying a similar position in the Senate Republican Bob Coker.

From his post and will leave the speaker of the house of representatives Paul Ryan, who plays in the American Parliament a key role in foreign Affairs. Finally, after the elections are determined and the new head of the Senate Committee on armed forces. This powerful position was a long-time dead in August, John McCain.

However, the decisive will be whether the Democrats get a majority in the Senate and House of representatives which is now controlled by Republicans. If the Democrats can wrest from the Republicans the majority in the Senate (which, according to many observers, it is unlikely but not completely excluded), they will receive a significant impact in the field of international relations.

Since the appointment of representatives of Executive power and signing of international treaties occur in the United States with Senate approval, the Democrats would be able to block approval in the positions of foreign officials to delay the conclusion of trade agreements that are the Foundation of the foreign policy agenda trump. So the loss of the Senate for the American President and the Republicans in Congress — this is a catastrophic scenario. In the case of its realization the Democrats would have received an effective means of dealing with the foreign policy mischief in the White house who still did not know any limits.

The balance in the House of representatives: Trump threatens new investigation?

Less painful for the administration, trump would be a scenario in which the Democrats have taken the Republican majority in the House of representatives. Such option a is considered likely, although not absolute. In this case, the representatives of the democratic camp will be able to influence the foreign policy of the presidential administration, albeit to a lesser extent than in the case of obtaining a majority in the Senate.

If the Democrats win a majority in the House of representatives, much will change in terms of litigation and public debate, says Professor of the University of Maryland Francis Lee. Will begin a comprehensive investigation of the committees of the house of representatives in relation to the actions of the White house, including the administrative changes and immigration policy, the expert predicts. The subject of such investigations can be primarily tough measures against illegal migrants.

In addition, aktiviziruyutsya ongoing investigation and will probably start a new run of trump with Russia, does. It is unlikely that this will fundamentally change the direction of foreign policy trump. However, its implementation is complicated and will require more time. This may force the White house to consider whether the promotion of any specific foreign policy goals of the struggle, in which he will have to enter it, and the political price that may have to pay to overcome the resistance of the Democrats in Congress.

What will happen to domestic politics trump?

As in the case of foreign policy issues, Democrats have a majority in one or both chambers of the American Parliament will allow them to slow down or even block the trump domestic policy, but much more strongly. The reason is that the role of Congress in domestic policy, according to the us Constitution, much more important than in foreign policy, the prerogative of the Executive.

The democratic majority in the House of representatives will mean the end of the hopes of Republicans for complete abolition held Barack Obama’s health care reform. It can also complicate the Republican attempt to repeal Federal regulations or social benefits, or spend the next stage of tax reduction.

But first and foremost the Democrats control of the house of representatives would force trump to treat the opposition parties much more balanced than before. Indeed, in this case it would be not to dispense with Democrats to solve seemingly completely mundane but important tasks like raising the debt ceiling.

However, we cannot rule out that trump, in contrast, may choose a more confrontational course in the hope to set up against the opponents first, the electorate, and then also the entire community. This can create an even more toxic political environment.

What does the U.S. census?

No less than the struggle for seats in Congress, the important results of elections to state legislature and gubernatorial elections. They are of great importance for the census to be held in 2020. The fact that on the basis of the census held every 10 years in the United States occurs at cutting of election districts.

In many States, their legislative Assembly can carry out the cutting so that the votes in the state will be distributed in favor of the party that will take place. While many consider this method of influence on the balance of political forces before the elections transparent. So depending on the tog, who this year will receive the majority in legislative assemblies of the States, Democrats or Republicans — it will become clear how to form constituencies at the next election in 4 years and next.

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