The GDP growth forecast for 2019 is deteriorated by 0.2 p. p.
The growth of gross domestic product in 2019 will slow down to 2.7% from 3.3% last year while reducing inflation to 7.6% from 9.8%.
This is evidenced by data from the updated consensus forecast, which announced the Ministry of economic development and trade on may 28, reports the online edition of the Chronicle.info with reference on EP.
Commenting on the macroeconomic forecast of the first Vice Prime Minister, Minister of economic development and trade Stepan Kubiv noted that “the consensus forecast of GDP growth in 2019 is estimated at 2.7% and it is close to 3%, based on which were calculated the indicators of the state budget”.
“So the inflation, which is estimated at 7.6 per cent is almost identical with 7.4 per cent budgeted. Approximately the same situation we are seeing in relation to 2020,” he said.
Also, the forecast data show that in 2020, experts are predicting GDP growth of 3%, 2021 — 3.5%, and in 2022 by 4%.
The risks of the Ukrainian economy
Experts believe that in 2019-2022 years, the most significant internal risk for the Ukrainian economy are: high levels of corruption, slower reforms and increased labor migration.
The NBU has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate
Among the external risks are most significant during these years, as in previous surveys, was: the strengthening of hybrid threats to national security of Ukraine, the deficit of foreign funding and shrinkage of possibilities of access to international capital markets.