To buy voters for polasara: how will the monetization of subsidies Groisman

Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

Ukrainian officials have invented a “universal diet” that does not need to sow, sift and carry out all other manipulations, including the delivery thereof to the beloved electorate suffering from chronic avitaminosis because of the constant growth of quality of life.

And this “buckwheat” is so universal that it does not even need to deliver, “a”, staging the battle on the ice near the truck with the “bags”. It is universal and that itself will deliver and unpack. And all this, importantly, for budget money.

We are talking about the so-called monetization, which is the cherry on the cake held by the municipal reform became a political wrap with a similar fate: a beautiful but short life and a natural ending in the trash.

But about all under the order. In countries where proper working of the government and generates adequate economic sense, any reform is not only a well-executed sequence, and the logic of systemic change, but in time formed the basic conditions to carry them out.

If we are talking about tariffs for the population and pricing in the energy sector, including the successful implementation of the roadmap reforms should become the new market pricing model (national gas hub), when the price of gas is determined in the domestic marketand not in relation to the import parity of the German hub, which has to our market the same attitude as a Guinea pig to the sea.

Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

In addition, the new model of national gas hub needs to be embedded and the additional option in the form of separate pricing on the Ukrainian gas production for the population and heating utilities.

Here are possible options: either the Norwegian model with high domestic prices and the national reserve Fund, which focuses its resources on the development of energy efficiency, alternative forms of energy production, modernization and infrastructure. Or conditional “model of the United States” when public cake in the form of natural resources “cut” in the form of more affordable energy prices for the population.

Let me remind you, in the USA gasoline is 1.5-2 times less than in Ukraine, and that the American economy does not become less than the “market” as the worst corrupt officials not to use the imbalance of internal and external prices in their own interests.

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If the country produces 60% of gas used (like Ukraine), the example of other developed countries with similar energy balance shows that you need either to accumulate reserves or reduce domestic prices. We’re not doing either the first or second. Although reducing domestic prices only a right: the market model and the counterweight in the form of the Antimonopoly Committee.

Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

The binding of gas prices to the import parity used in our country – it is a purely “streaming scheme”, which allows you to successfully ride the cash flow collected from all over the country.

Just the classics: poor little helps – officials for the bonus.

After creating a budget formula right countries are moving to verification of subsidianes, that is, the preparation of a full working registry. In Ukraine, this registry is like a notorious “list of voters”, with a similar carousel and stuffing.

Created in Ukraine the registry is not multifunctional, i.e. does not allow online view of the property status of the recipient of subsidies, the presence of vehicles, means on accounts in banks, the number of trips abroad, the contents of tax returns. That is, we have the usual useless scrap of paper. But “Shary” she’s like, and therefore continues to “successfully” function.

Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

After verification, it is logical to carry out selection, identifying in the registry of “dead souls” and subsidianes “from Kozina”. But how to do it, if the registry more than 5 million households, i.e. nearly half of the population? There’s even an old stukacheskoy methods the 30-ies of the last century will not help — such as “find ten Linden subsidianes – get 5% discount on heating”.

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As practice shows, it is possible to verify only a relatively small number of subsidianes: 5-10% of the total population of the country. Otherwise, it’s just a theory of large numbers, which is neither in the budget nor in the minimum control criteria.

In simple words, the subsidy can apply even one of our oligarchs, providing unreliable data — and 90% guarantee that he will do.

While grandmother, whose son works in Poland and did not provide a Declaration of income, may be denied. In General, the “system nipple”.

Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

Thus, the correct country, where officials produce “correct honey” in the form of management product, proceed to monetize only when there is a market pricing model, the mechanism of cutting public pie in the form of natural resources, high-quality multifunctional register of recipients of social assistance and effective mechanism for selecting them.

As practice shows, the output of this is correct system is not more than 10% of subsidianes. If more – means, the officials did something wrong.

In this case, means declared monetization? In the conditions of Ukraine is the cart before the horse. You can not “monetize” half of the population.

But the whole point is that actually we have not monetized the subsidy and the mythical “savings” that are supposed to remain after the heating season. But as “save”, if 90% of subscribers apartment houses no. of gas meters, and most of the old houses with vertical distribution of heat makes it possible to install a heat meter?

It turns out, will save on water, to bathe in the hole. Or private households.

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Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

In the Memorandum, the IMF, the government committed itself to 2019 year to reduce the social norm of energy consumption by 10%. In this scenario, hryvnia 500 can save from 500 thousand to 1 million people living in private homes. Assuming that there will be “dogrevaetsya” firewood, or moving for a couple of months to the neighbor.

But, according to “notebooks strategists”, the payment of 500 UAH in may of this year, hundreds of thousands of people to create an electoral base for the future party, which will be released from the depths of the current government and “on the belly” will crawl into Parliament at the next election. Like, remember “Yulia’s thousand”, and remember “Volodya of polasara”. Questionable strategy of innovative buckwheat for the budget money. As they say, to Juan sombrero.

Купить избирателей за полкосаря: как будет работать монетизация субсидий Гройсмана

“And the money will be sent to mother”: Groisman will “variate” the gas, and the Ukrainians to pay more
Analytics

Oleksiy Kushch, an economist and financial analyst, especially for the “Politiki”, 15 January 2019

Recall that the Minister-the dietician will force the Ukrainians to move to the village of new rules for calculating subsidies.

As reported Politeka, the Cabinet headed by Groisman demanded from the Parliament to pass a law that will affect Poroshenko.

Politeka also reported that the Cabinet is preparing a Grand increase in prices for communal: “80%”.

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