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Alberto Caballero, a doctoral student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain, wondered what the chances were of humanity one day encountering a hostile alien civilization.< br />
To answer this question, Caballero carried out complex calculations. According to Live Science, the scientist analyzed the number of countries that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022. As it turned out, 51 countries launched invasions during this period (the United States in first place).
He then weighed the likelihood that a country could launch an invasion based on that country's share of world military spending – in first place again turned out to be the United States.
After that, Caballero added the individual probability of each country to provoke an invasion, then divided the sum by the total number of countries on Earth, getting “the current probability of human invasion of an extraterrestrial civilization”, -0.028%.
For his final calculation, Caballero turned to a 2012 paper in which researchers predicted that 15,785 alien civilizations could theoretically share the galaxy with humans.
As a result, the scientist came to the conclusion that less one of the civilizations of type 1 (interstellar civilization) will be hostile to humans. But the number of hostile neighbors rises to 4.42 if we take into account civilizations that, like modern humans, are not yet capable of interstellar travel.
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