While the whole country is wondering if Netanyahu will agree to a court deal, and if so, under what conditions, the most far-sighted experts are starting to make predictions about what the Israeli politics of the post-Bibi era will look like, because this era anyway, someday it will come.
Although the ex-premier himself for a long time frightened the people that without him everything would collapse and fall apart, this is perhaps the only thing you should not be afraid of. Israel, thank God, existed before the reign of Bibi and will exist after. It is possible that in a few years no one will even remember what his reign was famous for, except for a record term and corruption cases.
With a high probability, the coalition will be torn apart by internal centrifugal processes, as soon as the principle of “not like Bibi” will lose relevance. In fact, all the players are already quietly preparing for the next elections, and this explains the descent into the brakes on the most important decisions for the country, such as the fight against the “corona”; – no one wants to be held responsible for the mistakes and miscalculations of the “government of change”.
On the eve of elections, society usually wakes up hope for the emergence of new healthy political forces, but in reality there is only a shuffling of the old cards. However, if Netanyahu's successors in Likud turn out to be sufficiently negotiable, a fairly successful alliance of right-wing movements could emerge in the future.
Another thing is that in terms of survival, Likud raises no less questions than his opponents. The problem is not only in the behind-the-scenes struggle of party activists for Netanyahu's legacy. Likud abandoned his most loyal voters to the mercy of fate – medium and small businesses, those who have suffered the most from the “corona”. Instead of pushing for social and economic reforms or simply expressing solidarity with desperate people, the Likud opposition is settling small scores with the government. After the departure of its leader, the party risks losing up to a third of the electorate, even if the “heirs” they will not tear it apart in the struggle for influence, and the latter is more than real. In the conditions of disarray and anarchy, many interested parties, including Bennett and Saar, will be tempted to compete for supremacy in Likud with Edelstein, Barkat and both Kats. If there is no one self-confident winner in this struggle, then the sad fate of Labor awaits the former ruling party – it will slide to the brink of the electoral barrier, and its activists will scatter on other lists.
Nevertheless, revenge and unification of right-wing forces are possible even on the ruins of Likud, Yamina and New Hope. The results of the new elections may make the dreams of many of a right-wing government without ultra-Orthodox a reality, although the Haredim themselves will try not to be left out this time.
The fate of the current coalition has shown that our politicians have very few reasons to unite, and the trend towards fragmentation, on the contrary, is growing. With a high probability, the next Knesset will consist of minor factions. This means that politicians will have to learn how to negotiate, otherwise we will face endless crises, early elections, unreliable alliances and all the sad consequences of unstable power. Against the backdrop of this farce, the battle for the vacated throne of the national leader will continue. Although none of the current party leaders are drawn to this role, but this will not prevent them from climbing to the top, kicking and pushing each other. In other words, Bibi will be gone, but his business will live on.
The demand for a strong one-man power in society not only did not disappear, but even grew against the background of the “collegiate government” tossing about. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that a confident, charismatic and tough leader will again appear on the political horizon, and perhaps it will be… Netanyahu himself.
His return, if he leaves at all, is considered by many to be only a matter of time. Even if he agrees to the deal, it will not be difficult for him to maintain popularity by convincing the broad masses of his supporters that this was done for the well-being of the country. He will try to continue to put his people in key positions and, perhaps, will not even leave the post of leader of the Likud. Another politician could be content with the place of the “grey eminence” who pulls the strings of big politics, remaining in the shadows, but Bibi is too vain for this role. In old age, after the expiration of the ban on election, he can also count on victory and several years of permanent rule.
This revenge can happen even earlier if it is caused by some tragedy of a national scale that others cannot cope with politicians. Then Netanyahu will again become the hero and savior of the fatherland, and no one will remember his corruption cases anymore.
Such a scenario, despite its illogicality, looks so real that the current leaders will be afraid of Netanyahu's shadow for a long time to come. Only at that moment, when Bibi will cease to be afraid, his era will finally end. It remains to wish Israel that by this time a new policy, new leaders and new social forces capable of leading the country in the right direction have been formed. Otherwise, we will call a new king to the throne very soon.