If you want negotiations, prepare for war

Do you want negotiations & ndash; prepare for war

While Europe and America are complaining about the stalled negotiations of the Five with Iran on the resumption of the nuclear deal, in Israel they are increasingly talking about a military solution, it is also an “ alternative option '', it is also “ plan B ''. And they not only talk, but also take practical steps to make this plan more real.

There is nothing new in Jerusalem's desire to stop Tehran's approach to nuclear weapons. What is new here is that the Western negotiators no longer seem to be against such a development of events. Moreover, members of the American administration, headed by the President, also constantly mention in their speeches the “ alternative option. ''

Even peace-loving Europeans are unhappy with the stubbornness of the Ayatollahs. French President Macron expressed the unexpected idea that Israel and the Persian Gulf countries should participate in the agreements with Iran. Since Tehran will never agree on anything with the Jewish state, this statement sounds more like a threat to Iran. Like, you don't want to negotiate with the West & ndash; Israel will deal with you in its own way.

In fact, many world leaders would be glad if someone did away with Iran's nuclear ambitions once and for all, and they stay on the sidelines. This is the most opportune moment for Israel to attack Iran, if the government really sets itself such a task.

At first glance, everything is heading towards this: Defense Minister Gantz gave the army an order to prepare for a military response to any Iranian provocation, and Mossad director David Barnea promised that Iran would not have nuclear weapons – “ not in the coming years, not never at all. '' Immediately after these high-profile statements, Gantz and Barnea gathered in Washington for talks that should convince Biden and his team of the need for decisive steps. The question is which & ndash; and whose & ndash; steps will be discussed.

Our leaders have repeatedly proclaimed that any deal of the world community with Iran on the nuclear issue – this is bad for Israel. Jerusalem would love to see the United States return to tough, unilateral Trump-era sanctions, with other countries backing them. But for Biden, the main goal remains to renew the agreement. He did not start the negotiations in order to ultimately admit that Trump was right, so it is difficult to expect him to retreat to his previous positions.

What are the Israeli leaders trying to achieve? The media report the possibility of an accelerated delivery of new American Boeings to the IDF, capable of
cover long distances without refueling. It is unlikely that such sensitive information would have appeared without the approval of the White House. It is likely that we are talking about an intentional drain: the appearance of modern bombers from Israel, or even consent to their early delivery, looks like a convincing “ well, well, well ''; to Iran. By delivering them to Israel on an expedited basis, the Pentagon is likely to demand assurances that the planes remain on the ground as a deterrent, rather than being used to unleash a large-scale conflict. If Gantz and Barnea go to Washington just for this purpose, then their mission could be crowned with success. But one should hardly expect more serious shifts from the United States towards an “ alternative scenario. ''

It is unrealistic to hope that the American army will participate in an attack on Iran. If this did not happen under Trump, then it is unlikely to happen under Biden, unless Tehran is really attacking the American base. Such a turn will be a real nightmare for the White House, so the States will try it.
to avoid. The most that Israel can count on is approval of its own military action. As the American media write, recently, the US presidential administration has regularly received notifications of major Israeli operations against Iranian military facilities, and Bennett acts more transparently in this regard than Netanyahu. Perhaps Barnea and Gantz's visit to Washington is planned precisely within the framework of this transparency.

However, as already mentioned, the Americans do not want war, and Israel's Plan B can lead to the most serious consequences. Unlike Macron and other European politicians, Biden will not be able to confine himself to condemnation if it comes to a direct armed clash between Israel and Iran. The United States will have to defend its ally, regardless of whether Israel launches the first strike on Iran on its own initiative or with Washington's approval.

So the current diplomatic activity and belligerent rhetoric are primarily aimed at to intimidate the Iranian leadership and make it more accommodating. It is possible that Israel is consciously taking part in this game. Some experts admit that, as an act of intimidation
, a targeted attack on Iranian facilities in Yemen or Lebanon, or on another nuclear facility, approved by the White House, is possible.

This is perhaps the only consensus that can be reached. with the current US administration. In any case, the Israeli government is unlikely to go beyond the framework outlined for it in Washington.

Posted by Ira Kogan

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