Certification of Donbass and elections to the State Duma: why Putin needs CADLO residents
The elections to the State Duma in Russia will be held on September 19, 2021 .
Moscow is leading their militants who fought against Ukraine in the Donbass, to the State Duma. For a long time, the Kremlin has been forcing the residents of the occupied territories of Ukraine, whose votes will be used in favor of Putin's party, to change their passports. Experts say that it is already worth talking not about a hybrid war, but about a hybrid annexation, Chronicle.info reports with reference to Channel 24.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine appealed to international organizations, governments and parliaments of other countries with an appeal not to recognize elections to the State Duma in the Russian-occupied Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Such actions of the Russian Federation are a direct violation of not only the Constitution and Ukrainian legislation, but also contradict the UN Charter, the Budapest Memorandum, the UN General Assembly resolution on the territorial integrity of Ukraine and other international documents.
Elections in Russia: & # 171; clearing the field & # 187; and & # 171; convenient laws & # 187;
Elections to the State Duma in Russia will be held & nbsp; September 19, 2021 & nbsp; and will be recognized as valid at any turnout, since the threshold is not set. The Duma is elected for a term of five years under a mixed electoral system. Half of the seats (225) are elected on party lists with a 5% electoral threshold, and the other half are elected in 225 single-mandate constituencies.
The ratings of the pro-government party & # 171; United Russia & # 187; keep falling. It is also significant that none of the opponents is growing in comparable amounts. After all, the Kremlin actively & # 171; cleaned & # 187; field and & # 171; removed not convenient & # 187; at the legislative level.
So, at the end of May 2021, the State Duma of Russia adopted a law prohibiting the so-called & # 171; extremist organizations & # 187; participate in elections. In particular, the list includes organizations established by oppositionist Alexei Navalny , who was poisoned with a nerve agent & # 171; Novichok & # 187; and subsequently received a real prison sentence.
After that, repressions against freedom of speech continued in Russia. In particular, groups of independent journalists were identified, who were declared & # 171; foreign agents & # 187;, and many opponents of the authorities generally ended up behind bars.
The militants are preparing to enter the State Duma
Since 2019, Moscow has been actively distributing Russian passports to CADLO residents after adopting a simplified procedure. This year, the militants who fought in the Donbass are also planning to enter the Russian parliament.
In particular, the leader of the militants & # 171; DPR & # 187; Denis Pushilin , who is now actively campaigning in the occupied part of Donbass, announced his intention to join Putin's political party & # 171; United Russia & # 187;. For this, the administrative resource of the groups controlled by the Kremlin is actively used & # 171; DPR & # 187; and & # 171; LPR & # 187;.
Who is Denis Pushilin
After the start of Euromaidan, Denis Pushilin took part in separatist actions and called for the independence of the Donetsk region from Ukraine and its annexation to Russia. In particular, he led an illegal action that ended in the seizure of the Donetsk Regional State Administration. In April 2014, Pushilin announced himself as deputy of the so-called & # 171; people's governor & # 187; Pavel Gubarev, and after the fake referendum became one of the ringleaders in the & # 171; government of the DPR & # 187;. After the murder of Alexander Zakharchenko, he was proclaimed the new leader of the & # 171; DPR & # 187 ;. He also became a representative of terrorists at the Minsk talks.
In addition to him, to the State Duma from Putin's party & # 171; United Russia & # 187; the former & # 171; head of government & # 187; wants to enter the so-called & # 171; DPR & # 187; & nbsp; Alexander Boroday … He is officially the head of the organization & # 171; Union of Donbass Volunteers & # 187;, and unofficially – a colleague of the former Kremlin curator & # 171; LDNR & # 187; Vladislav Surkov. According to & # 171; Eastern Human Rights Group & # 187;, now Surkov oversees political processes in ORDLO, in particular, elections to the State Duma. & # 187; Union of Donbass Volunteers & # 187; was created in the summer of 2015. Then Boroday himself, who headed the organization, said that already at that time the number of such & # 171; volunteers & # 187; that is, Russian citizens who took part in the Russian war against Ukraine in the Donbass, ranged from 30 to 50 thousand people. In May 2021, the Party & # 171; United Russia & # 187; and & # 171; Union of Donbass Volunteers & # 187; (UDV) signed an agreement aimed at enhancing the participation of volunteers in the internal political life of Russia.
Borodai also said that as a private person he took part in the annexation of Crimea to Russia, and that only one and the same team.
The representative of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group & nbsp; Serhiy Garmash & nbsp; says that the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the world community is a political gesture and expression of Ukraine's position before the Russian elections.
Although, unfortunately, I have no reason to expect that even Ukraine will not recognize the legitimacy of these elections and will end diplomatic relations with Russia. If we admit that the elections to the State Duma are illegitimate, this will actually mean for Ukraine that Russia has an illegitimate government. But, at the same time, this does not entail an automatic termination of diplomatic relations with Russia,
– the expert noted.
However, these are not the first elections to be held, in particular, in the Russian-occupied Crimea since 2014. According to the expert, this did not bring any consequences for Russia even from Ukraine. Therefore, now, first of all, much will depend on the position of Ukraine – to what extent it will show whether it is ready to maintain relations with Russia, if the legitimacy of the State Duma is not recognized. According to Garmash, much will depend on Russia itself.
If, for example, Moscow intensifies its aggressiveness towards neighboring countries, including Ukraine and, for example, decides on an open invasion – such actions may become a reason for the international community and a decisive reaction in connection with the illegitimacy of the elections in State Duma,
– the expert says.
According to him, if the Western community is not profitable & # 171; to break the dialogue & # 187; with Russia, and & # 171; talk & # 187; with it (which is now the concept of Germany and France), then, apart from political statements, Ukraine will receive nothing.
Why Putin needs the elections in ORDLO
Sergei Garmash clarified that there is a whole range of tasks that these elections are solving. First, in Russia, the turnout of the population drops significantly from election to election. At the latter, for example, which were held in 2016, the turnout fell by 12% compared to 2011. Prior to that, it decreased by 3-4%, but here it immediately decreased by 12%, that is, three times.
If it is reduced by three times now, it will turn out that only 20% of voters will come to the polling stations. Of course, this will not affect the recognition of the legality of the elections, because there is no voter turnout threshold in Russia. But it will be an indicator of the attitude of voters to the Russian government, a real attitude. Because today people really do not want to go to vote, they understand that everything has been decided there, the expert explained.
In the parliamentary elections in the Russian Federation in 2016, a critically low voter turnout was recorded (officially – 48%, but expert estimates indicate 31%), so the Kremlin tried to avoid repeating this scenario in 2018. The current ideological background for mobilizing public support for the regime during the presidential elections in 2018 was the confrontation with the West.
In 2018, during the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, the main resources and efforts were focused on increasing the official voter turnout. To this end, during the election campaign, the following were involved:
- pro-government media and sociology;
- stimulation and mobilization projects;
- the use of technologies of administrative coercion to vote;
- campaigning when collecting signatures;
- attracting opinion leaders to work in the official headquarters in support of Vladimir Putin and public associations in the electoral process, etc.
< p>Sergei Gamash noted that with such a drop in voter turnout in Donbass, it will be possible to get 1-2% of the votes cast in Russia.
This is a serious indicator. It is clear that all these votes will be given for & # 171; United Russia & # 187 ;. Now in the occupied territory there is a monopoly on campaigning. Russia is giving a signal to its supporters that there is no accession to the Russian Federation, but de facto integration is taking place. I would already introduce a new term, not a hybrid war and not a hybrid occupation, but a hybrid annexation,
– the expert noted.
As of June, Russia imposed at least 630 thousand Russian passports on Ukrainians who remain in the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine . These figures were announced by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov.
According to him, such compulsory certification of the residents of ORDLO makes it impossible to implement the Minsk agreements in that part of them, where it is a question of holding elections in Donbass. He noted that the Minsk agreements should be revised, since a lot has changed since their signing.
& # 171; This is not just & # 171; a loud cry for help & # 187;
Director of the Institute of World Politics & nbsp; Evgeny Magda & nbsp; believes that the appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the world community is not just & # 171; a loud cry for help & # 187; but a reminder to the world that & nbsp; Crimea and part of Luhansk and Donetsk regions are occupied by Russia … According to him, if the Verkhovna Rada does not do this, it will mean that Ukraine has actually resigned itself to the compulsory passportisation carried out by Russia.
If this is not done, then in the current situation, these problems will recede into the background, just Ukraine will recede into the background. Can we let this happen? Should not, in any case,
– Magda emphasized.
The expert noted that Ukraine should come up with appropriate initiatives, say that “we, for one reason or another, do such and such things”. In particular, if elections to the Russian authorities are held in the occupied Crimea, then the Crimean Platform should become the initiator of actions and statements.
According to him, Russia will do everything to ensure that the world somehow somehow recognizes that Crimea is Russian. But Ukraine must fight against this every day.
I have no unnecessary illusions on this topic, but all the same it should be some kind of deliberate steps aimed at maximum mobilization. There is the occupied Crimea, there is the Crimean platform. Should the Crimean platform speak on this topic? I think yes. Let's, perhaps, wait for the elections to the State Duma and move forward somehow. And we'll see if there will be some kind of consolidated reaction from the international community,
– Magda added.
According to the analyst, illegal passportisation of the population in ORDLO & # 171; will allow all former Russian proxies to enter the State Duma, so that they acquire more political weight and thereby influence social and political life in Russia & # 187 ;. According to the forecasts of the director of the Institute of World Politics, if former militants get into the State Duma, they may subsequently become PACE deputies. And this will be a rather serious problem for Ukraine.
At the initiative of France and Germany, the Russian delegation returned to PACE on such conditions that they cannot even be expelled from there,
– Magda noted.
< h2> The decision of the Russian Federation on the OSCE mission is another blackmail of Ukraine
In September 2021, Russia refused to renew the mandate of the OSCE observer mission at Russian checkpoints & nbsp; & # 171; Gukovo & # 187; and & # 171; Donetsk & # 187; , located on the border with the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Serhiy Garmash explained that this is also more a political step, because there are only two checkpoints, & # 171 ; controlled by & # 187; the OSCE Border Mission, although there (checkpoint) & nbsp; eleven & nbsp; and the total length of the uncontrolled border is & nbsp; 400 kilometers .
It's just that Russia thus politically made a statement that it does not consider itself a party responsible for the implementation of the Minsk agreements that she is a party to the conflict. And she showed that she would distance herself from the Minsk process as a party to the conflict. Not as a mediator, but as a party to the conflict, which & # 171; unties her hands & # 187;, including to intensify confrontation in Donbass,
– said the expert.
According to him, Russia will demonstrate the potential of its capabilities, in particular, the potential of military pressure on Ukraine. And this pressure, he believes, will increase.
The first goal is to vote on the Transition Policy Bill. Russia is categorically not satisfied with the presented option. Therefore, she will show it by any means. And now she has few tools, except for the military, that the adoption of this document will entail increased confrontation in Donbass,
– Garmash noted.
Military expert & nbsp; Oleg Zhdanov & nbsp; said, that the OSCE mission is not on the border of Ukraine with Russia, but on the contact line at the checkpoint. The Russian Federation & # 171; completely swallowed the border between Russia and Ukraine & # 187;, he said.
And there is no mission there. No one except Russia controls the border. Only our intelligence and the intelligence of our partners provide information when an echelon with ammunition, personnel or Russian military equipment crosses the border. Therefore, Russia brings in as much as it needs, when it needs it, and does not ask anyone, And it is not ashamed of anyone, because there are no observers there,
– Zhdanov added.
He noted that after Russia refuses to extend the mandate of the OSCE mission, Ukraine will completely lose control over the actions of the Russian Federation. According to him, this is blackmail on the part of Moscow, which will bargain in order to obtain certain preferences or agreements from the OSCE on Russia's control of the routes or locations of this special monitoring mission.
There are two reasons. The first is political preferences and blackmail of the OSCE itself, and the second is that Russia is not happy with the fact that the OSCE is working there,
– Zhdanov explained.
Russia & # 171; corrects mistakes & # 187;
Self-proclaimed & # 171; LDNR & # 187; want to create a common economic zone … According to the invaders, the common economic space is the abolition of & # 171; customs & # 187; between pseudo-republics and partnership projects. It seems to be able to help two & # 171; republics & # 187; improve the quality of life in ORDLO. They say that salaries, pensions and social benefits will rise to the level of those received by Russians in Rostov.
Sergei Garmash noted that the hybrid annexation of the occupied territories has been going on for a long time – certification, a single currency. And the abolition of customs posts between the so-called & # 171; LPR & # 187; and & # 171; DNR & # 187; Is another vector. According to him, this was inconvenient for the Kremlin, and also affected the economic costs of Moscow, because & # 171; republics & # 187; We have established posts among ourselves and introduced taxes for the transportation of goods.
Now Russia has taken such a step for the logistic scheme of economic management. Moreover, Moscow is well aware that this will be welcomed by the local population. After all, this is one of the few factors for a real improvement in life, because people will spend less money on transporting goods and on moving between the & # 171; republics & # 187 ;. Also, the expert clarified, this corresponds to the concept of a single & # 171; Russian world & # 187 ;.
When, sorry, we have & # 171; stubs & # 187; two occupied regions, as they say about the same values, and count money among themselves. Of course, people did not understand this and for them it was a negative signal,
– Garmash noted.
According to him, now Russia is & # 171; fixes & # 187; these moments. First of all, by optimizing the logistics management scheme for Moscow.