Before a new war

The military and political circles do not hide the fact that Israel needs to prepare for the next armed confrontation. The only question is where to expect trouble in the first place.

According to Israeli intelligence, the Ayatollah regime has about two years left before acquiring nuclear weapons. However, there is another danger: that Tehran, as a condition of the deal with the West, will demand from the world community to achieve a nuclear-free status of the Middle East. Thus, the arrows will be transferred to Israel, which will either have to abandon its nuclear weapons, which is tantamount to suicide, or put itself outside the law at the international level. This risk further increases the possibility of a preemptive IDF attack on Iranian strategic targets during the year that has begun. Such a war will not be easy and bloodless & ndash; Iran recently conducted large-scale exercises that showed that the generals of the IRGC are well aware of our defense system and its weaknesses. Among other things, during these maneuvers, strikes against the nuclear reactor in Dimona and against the bases and aircraft carriers of the United States were practiced.

Will our government decide to take such a dangerous step? Keep in mind that Bennett has always had enough hawkish position. The attack on Iran, among other things, will give him a powerful trump card against Netanyahu, who for many years shouted about the Iranian threat, but avoided decisive action.

However, this war is the least likely. Of course, if Tehran attacks first, Israel will not hesitate to respond, but experts believe that this is unlikely to happen in the near future. A major clash will undermine the Islamic Republic's power and negatively affect plans to achieve nuclear status and create a Shiite Crescent. in the region. It is no coincidence that the IRGC is not responding to Israeli strikes. Tehran is accumulating strength and will certainly try to destroy the Jewish state when it is confident of success, but this is unlikely to happen in the coming year.

Much more real is another Lebanese war, provoked by Hezbollah on instructions from Iran. There may be more than enough reasons for it, since the Party of Allah constantly emphasizes that it is ready to defend its homeland – Lebanon from the encroachments of the enemy. For example, Sheikh Nasrallah promises Israel to react toughly to the drilling of gas wells in the disputed area of ​​the water area that Beirut considers theirs. This year, negotiations may begin to mark the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon, and any disagreement over this could trigger a Hezbollah attack. At the same time, the use of chemical weapons is not excluded, which with a high probability can get to the south of Lebanon from Syria.

The recently appointed commander-in-chief of the Israeli Air Force, Tomer Bar, promises that the new war in the North will be faster, more professional and victorious. than before, and will cost fewer victims. I would like to believe in it, although until now the rules and nature of such wars were dictated by Hezbollah, and the last clash in 2006 revealed huge miscalculations in the work of the Logistics Service.

As for Hamas, a new escalation is most likely on this front, although this is what our authorities usually try to avoid. In this war, Israel is not afraid of defeat, but of victory. Nobody understands what to do with Gaza, and no government is ready to take responsibility for this tangle of problems if Hamas loses power. That is why in recent years the IDF has not so much fought with the Gaza militants as forced to respond to their attacks and forcefully forced them to a truce.

Hamas is believed to be recovering from Operation Wall Guardian and not ready for another attack. But lately, the factions in Gaza have agreed to act in a coordinated and coordinated manner against Israel, overcoming previous contradictions. All this suggests that the future collision may be more serious than the previous ones.

Until now, the IDF responds to the shelling with a very restrained attitude, and yet Bennett is able to launch a large-scale southern operation – again, in defiance of Bibi, whom he always accused of half-measures against Gaza. Over the past year, the Prime Minister managed to make sure that the Arab and leftist coalition partners support the PNA leadership, and therefore will not object to attacks on Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

The main danger is that any spark could set fire Israel from both sides & ndash; from the north and from the south, and perhaps our enemies are just waiting for this. The hope remains that our leaders understand this and will try to avoid escalation. But more often than not, this does not depend on Israel.

Purely internal problems can also become the cause of the war. Sometimes only martial law helps politicians to retain power, even regardless of how the confrontation ends. In the past two years, the emergency situation has been created by the 'corona', but when the world finally copes with the virus, both our and other governments will have to look for a new way to distract public attention from their failures.

Posted by Ira Kogan.