While all the attention of the world is riveted on the events in Ukraine, another fire is slowly flaring up in the Middle East. Tehran is predictably at its epicenter. The recent attack on the US office in Kurdish Erbil may be just a trial balloon, or it may mark the beginning of a new large-scale escalation that threatens to escalate into World War III.
Neither Iran nor Hezbollah officially support either side in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but everything that happens is extremely beneficial to them. The war of Russia against Ukraine undermines the influence of the main enemy of the ayatollahs and their henchmen – The United States is bringing down the established order built on American leadership and the unity of the Western world. Accordingly, all of Washington's allies in our region are also weakened – Turkey, the Gulf countries and, of course, Israel.
However, the States can no longer fully rely on all those whom they have considered their partners until now. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have a lot of grievances against the White House, especially under President Biden. He was not forgiven for neglecting the Gulf countries and their needs, in particular, the fight against the Houthis and assistance in the supply of weapons. So far, the Arab monarchies have expressed their attitude towards the United States by refusing Biden's request to increase oil production and reduce its price. Their attempts to find a common language with Tehran deserve even more serious attention. It is unlikely that this will lead to a strategic alliance between the Gulf states and Iran, but in the event of a direct clash between the Americans and the IRGC, Riyadh and other monarchies would rather negotiate the right to neutrality from the ayatollahs than support the US military. The same goes for a possible Iranian attack on Israel.
Is a clash between the armies of Iran and the United States real at all? Until now, the IRGC has avoided direct confrontation, but the conflict in Ukraine proves that everything is possible in our troubled times. And if Russia succeeds in capturing Ukraine, it will be a tragedy not for one country, but for all mankind. Civilization will return back to an era when the authority of the state was determined by the power of its army and the ability to wage ruthless wars. The arms race, which is already gaining momentum, will reach unprecedented proportions. All the forces of evil are activated in the world, and this can happen even before the end of the bloodshed in Ukraine. After all, regimes suffering from unsatisfied ambitions and dreaming of revenge have already made sure that no one and nothing will prevent them from achieving their goals.
First of all, China will try to return Taiwan, and Iran will start outright expansion against the countries of the region. It is possible that these two aggressors will act in concert, given the growing cooperation between Beijing and Tehran. Three regional conflicts at once in different parts of the globe – this, in fact, is the world war, in which sooner or later all the others will be drawn. A nuclear deal between Iran and the West will no longer be needed at this point – international organizations will lose their importance or be dissolved, and no one will be able to control the creation of the bomb by Iranian developers. Unpredictable events will roll like a snowball that no one will be able to stop.
There is no doubt that Israel will somehow become a participant in these clashes, and possibly – one of the first targets of aggression by Iran and/or Hezbollah. Today's experience once again confirms that we should not count on outside help: at best, the Western countries will light the illumination of the colors of our flag in their cities, as is happening now with respect to Ukraine.
The peculiarity of the position of the Jewish state is that the loss of Moscow in Ukraine is also fraught with problems for us. A weakened Russia is likely to withdraw its troops from Syria, leaving its protégé Assad to the mercy of fate, or rather – at the mercy of Tehran. Iranian and pro-Iranian formations will thus receive complete freedom of action in Syria. We must also not lose sight of the danger from Gaza and from the radical groups of the Palestinian Authority, which are only waiting in the wings.
Can we somehow prepare for a future world war (about how to prevent it, there is no question, because it is not in our power). The only and long known way – build up and improve weapons; constantly, in word and deed, demonstrate the readiness of our army to defend its borders and its citizens. The stronger Israel is, the more cautious our enemies, both internal and external, will behave, and the more other countries will be interested in us as an ally. Relying on military power is more justified and realistic than relying on partnership agreements that are easily violated in the face of a real threat. Since everything in the world has changed globally, as experts constantly say, then Israel will also have to play according to the new world wartime laws.
Author: Ira Kogan.
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