The conclusions made on the basis of the data in the Human Mortality Database
Raising the age of retirement in Russia, provoked a storm of indignation, decided to explore in more detail, in order to know how many people from the first generation able to live up to the new retirement “indicator”? Spoiler: the results are so-so.
Experts of the Institute of demography, National research University “Higher school of Economics” calculated that corny not make it to retirement at 65 and 63 years at risk 17.4% of men and 6.5% women. Experts have found that men who were going to retire during the transition period, the likelihood of “to live” is from 82 to 96%, for women – 93-99%.
Wonderful conclusions made on the basis of the data in the Human Mortality Database and script changes in mortality, which was laid in the medium variant of Rosstat forecast.
Experts believe that potential retirees might live to retirement every year will decrease more and more. For example, among men born in 1959, the probability of reaching the new retirement age is 95.8 per cent (61), among the foreign-born in 1960 – already of 91.7% (62) in 1961 – at 88.9% (63), 1962 – 85,6% (64).
The first generation of men who retire at 65, there will be people born in 1963. Probability of survival until retirement for them will be of 82.6%, that is, not live to retirement of 17.4% of men, came to the conclusion demographers. Under the current pension age the chances of men to live to retirement is much higher for the 1959-1963 birth they are 92-98%.
If you are talking about women, here the probability that to live to retirement still happens, is higher than in men. For 1964, it is 98,9%, for 1965 – 97.8 per cent for 1966 to 97%. For women in 1971 who first retire in 63 years, the probability of surviving will be of 93.5%.
We will remind, earlier the information portal “Znayu” wrote that well-known Russian journalist Alexander Nevzorov beautifully and succinctly explained the essence of any pension reform.